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7Šª
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1986”N
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97-102•Å
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PROCEEDINGS OF JAPAN EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING SYMPOSIUM
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Shigeru SUZUKI, Anne KIREMIDJIAN
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A STOCHASTIC HAZARD MODEL WITH THEORETICAL GROUND MOTION CHARACTERIZATION
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A stochastic site hazard model is proposed based on a geophysical ground motion model. The model is developed in two steps. In the first step, the occurrence of earthquakes is represented as a time-dependent stochastic model based on the slip-predictable hypotheseis. In the second step, a synthetic ground motion model based on the normal mode method is developed for site ground motion estimates. The model forecasts the probabilities of exceeding a specified ground motion at a site. The model is applied to the Middle America Trench, Mexico. The results indicate that consideration of seismic gaps and geophysical earthquake mechanisms are particularly important to estimate the seismic site hazard.
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