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PROCEEDINGS OF JAPAN EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING SYMPOSIUM
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Hisao GOTO, Masata SUGITO, Hiroyuki KAMEDA, Toshihiko OKUMURA
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SYNTHETIC GROUND MOTION FOR GREAT EARTHQUAKES FROM SUPERPOSED EVOLUTIONARY PROCESS MODEL
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A prediction model of near-source ground motions for great earthquakes is proposed based on the statistical prediction model of nonstationary earthquake motions. The evolutionary power spectrum for great earthquakes is estimated from the synthesis of that for relatively smallmagnitude earthquake (M=6.O) The number N¡ of superposition of evolutionary power spectra of mall earthquake is obtained in the form of a linear relation between the logarithmic value of N¡ and seismic moment M¡ based on 48 accelerograms from 8 earthquakes recorded in Japan. A fault model for prediction of near-source ground motions, which includes seismic moment M¡, fault length L, angle of rupture direction a versus a specific site, and rupture velocity V¡, is proposed. The model is applied for estimation of peak ground motions in epicentral regions for a great and an intermediate fault sizes.
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