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5Šª
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1978”N
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41-48•Å
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PROCEEDINGS OF JAPAN EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING SYMPOSIUM
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Hiroyuki KAMEDA, Masata SUGITO
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PREDICTION OF STRONG EARTHQUAKE MOTIONS BY EVOLUTIONARY PROCESS MODEL
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A statistical model is proposed for prediction of strong earthquake motions for given earthquake values of magnitude and epicentral distance. First the simulation model is introduced by representing the time variation of the evolutionary spectra of the earthquake motion by a simple time function characterized by three frequency-dependent model parameters. Validity of the model for the purpose of seismic design is demonstrated for the peak acceleration, the total power, as well as for the deformation spectra and the hysteretic energy of elastoplastic systems. Then the frequency-dependent model parameters are estimated from regression on magnitude and epicentral distance. The correlation between the parameters is also obtained. The prediction model is proposed from which sample accelerograms for given magnitude and distance can be generated.
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