掲載雑誌（和）： 日本地震工学シンポジウム講演集 Vol： 5巻 年： 1978年 頁： 17-24頁 著者（和）： - タイトル（和）： - 抄録（和）：
- キーワード（和）： - 掲載雑誌（英）： PROCEEDINGS OF JAPAN EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING SYMPOSIUM 著者（英）： Minoru MAKINO, Kazuo Matsumura タイトル（英）： A CORRELATION BETWEEN THE RECURRENCE INTERVALS OF ACTIVE FAULTS AND THE EXTREME VALUE DISTRIBUTIONS OF EARTHQUAKE GROUND MOTIONS 抄録（英）：
The recurrence of great earthquakes has been noticed at the several regions in subduction zones around Japan. The recurrence intervals of fault movements are also estimated by geological and geomorphological studies for a number of active faults in central Honshu. Since Gutenberg and Richter's magnitude-frequency law is usually supported around Japan, the recurrence interval of great earthquakes may be inversely proportional to the occurrence rate of the earthquakes in the same region. The occurrence rate of earthquakes and the b-value of Gutenberg and Richter's law are important measures for the seismic risk analysis in a site. Under the assumption of the Poisson process for the occurrence of major earthquakes, the probabilistic procedure after Cornell yields very satisfactory estimation for the extreme value statistics when an appropriate attenuation relation is employed. It may be, therefore, possible to reflect the recurrence intervals of great earthquakes on the seismic risk analysis in a probable sense. The seismic risk map partly depended on this probabilistic procedure is derived and compared with Kanai's map, which is obtained from the historical earthquake documents. Since the same attenuation relation is employed, both maps are nearly identical except for several regions upon which recent great earthquakes affect the most. It seems to be evident that there is a correlation between the recurrence interval of great earthquakes and the seismicity of recent times in the active region. The result from the active fault studies will be taken into account in the improvement of a seismic risk map. キーワード（英）： - 記事区分： - 区分 　　　委員会論文集