@ ŒfÚŽGŽi˜ajF “y–ØŠw‰ï‰¢•¶˜_•¶W VolF 13Šª ”NF 1981”N •ÅF 60-62•Å ’˜ŽÒi˜ajF - ƒ^ƒCƒgƒ‹i˜ajF - ´˜^i˜ajF
- ƒL[ƒ[ƒhi˜ajF - ŒfÚŽGŽi‰pjF TRANSACTIONS OF THE JAPAN SOCIETY OF CIVIL ENGINEERS ’˜ŽÒi‰pjF Chosiro TAMURA, Hideji KAWAKAMI ƒ^ƒCƒgƒ‹i‰pjF SEISMIC RISK ANALYSIS OF UNDERGROUND LIFELINE SYSTEMS BY USE OF MONTE CARLO METHOD ´˜^i‰pjF
A Monte Carlo type simulation method has been proposed to evaluate the serviceability of the underground lifeline system subjected to an earthquake, based on the information about thepossible earthquake intensity, the local ground conditions and the mechanical resisting capacity of the underground pipe structues. First a method is sedcribed to calculate the probability that more than one pass remains unbroken which connects demand node with supply node. Then, taking water supply networks as an example, a furtyher detail ecaluation method is presentd by the use of the results of the flow analysis taking account of the effects of leakages resulting from failures of the pipe in the system. Applying these methods,the seismic performance of the water supply sysmtem is evaluated for the metropolitan Tokyo area. ƒL[ƒ[ƒhi‰pjF - ‹LŽ–‹æ•ªF - ‹æ•ª @@@ˆÏˆõ‰ï˜_•¶W